Tag: futures markets

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The Man Who Just Bought 7 Percent of the World’s Cocoa

Anthony Ward, founder and CEO of Armajaro who just took delivery of all that cocoa, gave an interview in January that give some insight into why he bought so much cocoa. He is clearly betting on future shortages and hopes to cash in on the likely profits.

On the other hand there are voices that claim Anthony Ward ended holding the bag (or better over 3 million bags of cocoa) after a deal went wrong. Globe and Mail author Paul Waldie claims that Ward ended up on the “wrong side of a private hedging arrangement with Swiss chocolate-maker Barry Callebaut AG.” On Monday, news surfaced that almost half of the cocoa in question had been passed on to Barry Callebaut. Since then, the London price of cocoa has dropped by almost 6 percent.

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A Funny Thing Happened on Thursday

Futures markets are basically places where people sell things they don’t have to people who don’t want them. In plain English, this means, traders just shuffle papers in the hopes of either averting price risk or making a profit. Positions are squared with opposite positions before the due date and nobody ever has to deal with the messy reality of the actual commodity. Only two percent of futures contracts in cocoa ever result in actual delivery of cocoa.

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Invisible Hand Is Confused

The rational way to determine prices

For anyone believing in the power of markets to accurately predict the future, this week was a challenge. On Wednesday, Business Week reported that cocoa prices were dropping on “concerns supply will outpace demand.” Cocoa butter has been piling up in Europe with stocks reaching 50,000 tons. Inventories in NY are rising as well. Finally, a bank projection puts the production of the top three growers (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Indonesia) at 2.59 million tons, about 160,000 tons more than last year. So the speculators got out of the game.

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ICCO and Markets Agree: Cocoa Might be in Short Supply

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its forecasted surplus for the next cocoa year from 100,000 to 25,000-50,000 tons. In an interview along the sidelines of the ICCO meeting in London, the ICCO’s chief, Jan Vingerhoets, pointed out that the economic recession may be ending sooner than expected, leading to higher demand. In addition, cocoa production for the next cocoa year starting on October 1 may well be lower than anticipated. The effects of El Niño on  Indonesia and Ecuador may lower production in these countries and the Côte d’Ivoire continues to struggle with pests and diseases.

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