The executive director of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicated on Monday that the 2008/09 cocoa season will yield less cocoa than previously thought. Despite a predicted decline in demand as a result of the global economic crisis, Jan Vingerhoets told Reuters that he expects a shortfall of about 45,000 tonnes.
It seems that the economic mess has not yet halted demand for chocolate. Fourth quarter grindings in Europe and the U.S. were up compared to last year albeit by small amounts, 0.1 percent and 1.85 percent respectively.
But before we go and worry about not getting our chocolate fix, let’s put these numbers in perspective. The shortfall in the 2006/07 cocoa year amounted to 299,000 tons and last year’s shortfall amounted to about 55,000 tons. It is true that continued annual shortfalls will eventually result in cocoa shortages but we are anywhere near such a point.
In April of last year, the ICCO released an assessment of global supply and demand of cocoa. The assessment concluded that for the ten year period ending in 2007/08, supply and demand were rather balanced–five years of surpluses and five years of deficits. As the results, cocoa stocks–the amount of cocoa in storage from previous years–in 2007/08 were the same as ten years earlier, 1.5 million tons.
The stocks-to-grindings ratio (total stocks from previous years/total grindings) hovered between 45 and 55 percent for that period. It dipped below that reaching about 41% in the last cocoa year, but it is not clear if that represents a new trend.
All these numbers say only one thing: there’s enough cocoa in the world. A shortfall of 45,000 tons barely makes a dent in the stockpile of 1.5 million tons that is stored in warehouses around the world.
But it does mean good news for cocoa farmers. Plotting the stocks-to-grindings ratio against cocoa prices, the ICCO found that there is an inverse relationship between the two–a lower ratio means higher prices. Enough cocoa to go around and higher prices for farmers–hey, that’s win-win.
I am writing on behalf of Global Exchange, an SF-based Human Rights non-profit organization. We here at Global Exchange’s Fair Trade Campaign would like to network with your blog. After review of your website, it seems we are advocating for similar goals in progressive education about the cocoa industry.
We have developed a free, downloadable curriculum focusing on Fair Trade Cocoa and social justice that we believe will be of interest to your network. Our Fair Trade Cocoa curriculum is the outcome of a unique partnership between Global Exchange and teacher candidates at Evergreen State College’s Master in Teaching program who authored inventive lesson plans. We encourage ALL educators (including teachers, youth group leaders, faith-based programs, after school program leaders, etc) to join in teaching the curriculum!
Features:
• ready-to-use lesson plans
• inquiry- and experiential-based learning consistent with best practices in teaching
• satisfies state teaching standards in every discipline
• kids learn they have the power to make a global impact AND
• it’s fun! Fair Trade cocoa will stimulate your students’ interest in learning!
In one month we will be hosting Global Exchange’s 2nd National Valentine’s Day of Action: 3,000 for Fair Trade! This initiative aims to educate the next generation about Fair Trade Chocolate, as well as to advocate for a better life for children abroad on cocoa farms. We would like to invite your network of educators to join us in teaching about Fair Trade within the next month to help us reach our goal!
If possible, please help us spread the word about the curriculum and National Valentine’s Day of action. There are many ways you can help out:
1. Include an informational blurb and link to our curriculum on your website: Book and unit downloadable at http://www.globalexchange.org/cocoa
2. Include information about the curriculum in your next blog entry
3. Include the Valentine’s Day of Action in your website’s calendar
4. Download printable flyers about the curriculum, and pass them out: http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/fairtrade/cocoa/ValentinesDay.html
Teach and Win a fabulous Fair Trade chocolate prize!*
Tell teachers that if they teach the curriculum anytime between now and Valentine’s Day, they will be entered into a prize drawing to win over $75 worth of Fair Trade chocolate and educational materials!
*To be entered into the prize drawing, email the following registration information to fairtrade@globalexchange.org by February 13.
Include in the body of your email:
Your name
School name
Mailing address (please indicate whether it is your mailing address or the school’s)
Phone
Number of children in your classroom
Grade level
Dates that you plan to teach the curriculum
In order to be eligible, participating educators must also postmark or email the curriculum evaluation at the end of the unit by February 21.
Thank you so much! Please contact us at fairtrade@globalexchange.org if you will be able to promote the curriculum for us! We appreciate your help!
Sara Litke
Global Exchange’s Fair Trade Cocoa Campaign Team