The roller coaster of cocoa prices continues. Since the December 16 high of $3,636/ton, cocoa prices have dropped by almost $600/ton as measured by the ICCO Daily Price. There hasn’t been much in terms of news that might warrant this decline. Yes, production in the current year is higher than previously expected, but the surplus of 80,000 tons (as predicted by the ICCO according to a Bloomberg article) isn’t very much in light of previous four years of deficits.
Cadbury Announces Plans for first Social Premium Disbursement
Cadbury, the latest convert to fairtrade, announced on Monday its plans for disbursing the first installment of its social premium. The funds, £500,000 ($751,215), will be invested in projects determined by the farmer cooperatives that supply the cocoa. One of the beneficiaries, the Kuapa Kokoo cooperative, will use its share to improve health services for its members through the deployment of mobile clinics and farmer extension services.
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Some Background on the Ivorian Crisis
When Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo dissolved that country’s government and electoral commission on February 12, he created the latest roadblock in the long and difficult road to elections. The outcome was predictable. The elections, already postponed six times to March 2010, now are even father off. Even more disturbing was the dissolution of the Electoral Commission, the very entity charged with organizing the elections.
Sierra Leone Becomes Fairtrade Producer
Divine Chocolate, my favorite chocolate maker, has done it again. They have just ordered the first fairtrade cocoa to come from the West African Country of Sierra Leone. Eight years after the end of its brutal civil war, with its economy still recovering, the farmers belonging to Kpeya Agricultural Enterprise (KAE) will enjoy the benefits of fairtrade.
Invisible Hand Is Confused
For anyone believing in the power of markets to accurately predict the future, this week was a challenge. On Wednesday, Business Week reported that cocoa prices were dropping on “concerns supply will outpace demand.” Cocoa butter has been piling up in Europe with stocks reaching 50,000 tons. Inventories in NY are rising as well. Finally, a bank projection puts the production of the top three growers (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Indonesia) at 2.59 million tons, about 160,000 tons more than last year. So the speculators got out of the game.