cocoa prices – Page 4 – Michael Niemann

September 23, 2009

ICCO and Markets Agree: Cocoa Might be in Short Supply

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its forecasted surplus for the next cocoa year from 100,000 to 25,000-50,000 tons. In an interview along the sidelines of the ICCO meeting in London, the ICCO’s chief, Jan Vingerhoets, pointed out that the economic recession may be ending sooner than expected, leading to higher demand. In addition, cocoa production for the next cocoa year starting on October 1 may well be lower than anticipated. The effects of El Niño on Indonesia and Ecuador may lower production in these countries and the Côte d’Ivoire continues to struggle with pests and diseases.

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August 6, 2009

Hog Cycle at Work in India (and elsewhere)

A little item in the Economic Times of India shows yet again how market forces and agriculture don’t really work together very well. The article points out that due to the recent high prices for cocoa, cocoa cultivation has increased in India (I have reported on that earlier). The report focuses on the speed with which farmers in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu have adopted cocoa .

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May 27, 2009

Chocolate Apparently Not Recession-Proof After All

Quite a few reports recently claimed that chocolate is recession-proof. It made sense, sort of. When everything else is going down the tube, there’s always chocolate–a little treat in hard times and not too expensive. But it it turned out to be just hearsay.

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April 28, 2009

Established Cocoa Markets also Fall

I mentioned earlier that the emerging chocolate markets didn’t quite live up to their predicted potential. But the traditioal markets aren’t doing so well either. The German Candy Manufacturers Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Süßwarenindustrie) released first quarter grindings numbers that showed a 17.2 percent decline to 87,576 tons compared to the first quarter of the previous year.

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February 11, 2009

Ivorian Farmers Block Cocoa Deliveries Again

I reported last fall that Ivorian farmers, upset over the fact that traders were not paying them the indicative price set by the Cocoa Management Committee, had blocked cocoa deliveries to ports.

Now they are threatening a blockade again, this time to protest the fact that they have not received the funding to buy fertilizer. According to Bloomsberg, Christophe Gbe, president of the Ivorian Federation of Coffee and Cocoa Producers, threatened to stop all cocoa deliveries and to expand the action to all producer delivered to ports should the Cocoa Management Committee not accede to the farmer’s demands.

Farmers on the ground, however, seem less concerned with the blockade. Some growers have announced support for the action but likely will not participate in the blockades. Others have yet to get ready for any action. No word yet how this will affect cocoa prices for the next months.