ICCO Predicts Cocoa Shortfall

The executive director of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicated on Monday that the 2008/09 cocoa season will yield less cocoa than previously thought. Despite a predicted decline in demand as a result of the global economic crisis, Jan Vingerhoets told Reuters that he expects a shortfall of about 45,000 tonnes.

It seems that the economic mess has not yet halted demand for chocolate. Fourth quarter grindings in Europe and the U.S. were up compared to last year albeit by small amounts, 0.1 percent and 1.85 percent respectively.

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Indonesia Follow-up

The International Cocoa Organization just issued a report decreasing Indonesia’s prospective cocoa harvest for 2007/08 by 90,000 tons. Indonesia exported 530,000 tons of cocoa during for 2006/07 and the ICCO had projected exports to reach 570,000 tons this season.The current export volume is estimated to reach 480,000 tons.

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We Need A New International Cocoa Agreement

What goes up must come down. The old trading adage certainly applied to cocoa this summer. After reaching $3,290/ton on July 1, the futures price dropped to $2,801/ton by July 28. That’s a drop of almost $500 in a month. Nobody can explain such a decline with changes in supply and demand of cocoa. There was no news of larger than expected increases in cocoa supplies. If anything, there were indications that the light harvest in both Ghana and the Côte d’Ivoire would be less than last year. So it’s back to the speculators.

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A Cocoa Comeback in Latin America

Cocoa from Latin America is making a comeback, at least according to a report in Confectionary News. It is often forgotten that Latin American cocoa dominated the world market until the early years of the twentieth century. After the Spanish colonizers brought cocoa to Spain and from there is quickly spread to the rest of Europe. But once industrialization made the production of chocolate bars possible and affordable, demand for cocoa expanded to levels that Latin American was not able to supply.

The spread of cocoa production followed a pattern first discussed by Francois Ruf, a French agronomist, who hypothesized that cocoa production depends on access to virgin forest land. He coined the phrase “forest rent” to explain that a new cocoa grove on new forest land is initially extremely productive and produces very high yields. As the trees near their life expectancy or are attacked by disease or pests, the yields decline, sometimes precipitously. Replanting in an existing cocoa grove never yields as good a return as planting in new forest lands. So productivity depends on capitalizing on the “forest rent” derived from previously untouched forests. Increase demand, therefore, over time leads to an expansion of cocoa production to areas that support the tree. As long as there was enough forest land available, there was no problem, but eventually, that expansion came to an end. The move to Africa in the mid 1800s is in part explained by the need for more forest land. Continue reading “A Cocoa Comeback in Latin America”